JAKARTA (RambuEnergy.com) – OPEC is expected to remain the fuel with the largest share in the global energy mix throughout the forecast period to 2040, OPEC said in its latest World Oil Outlook report, launched in Vienna.
The oil cartel revised the upward the long-term oil demand by 1.7 million barrels a day (mb/d) compared to the WOO 2016, with total demand at over 111 mb/d by 2040;
“There is no expectation for peak oil demand over the forecast period to 2040,” it said.
Developing countries will continue to lead demand growth, increasing by almost 24 mb/d, to reach 67 mb/d by 2040. Long-term demand growth comes mainly from the road transportation (5.4 mb/d), petrochemicals (3.9 mb/d) and aviation (2.9 mb/d) sectors,
The report said oil demand in the road transportation sector is driven by the increasing car fleet in Developing countries and declining oil use per vehicle in the OECD region. The car fleet is anticipated to change smoothly over the forecast period. In the passenger car segment, electric vehicles are estimated to represent 12% of the car fleet by 2040.
First published in 2007, the WOO offers a thorough review and assessment of the medium- and long-term prospects to 2040 for the global oil industry, as well as analysis of various sensitivities that have the potential to impact the petroleum industry in the years ahead.
“The past year has been an historic one for OPEC and the global oil industry. Since publication of the WOO 2016 in early November last year, the oil market has undergone fundamental change. It has been a period where the rebalancing of the global oil market has gathered vital momentum, buoyed by a number of important factors,” Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, OPEC Secretary General said.
The other key highlights of the report:
- Total primary energy demand is set to increase by 35% in the period to 2040;
- Non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to increase from 57 mb/d in 2016 to 62 mb/d in 2022, but in the long-term non-OPEC liquids output is anticipated to see a decline, dropping to 60.4 mb/d by 2040, with US tight oil estimated to peak just after 2025;
- The demand for OPEC crude is anticipated to expand to 4 mb/dby 2040;
- The share of OPEC liquids in total global liquids supply is estimated to increase to 46%by 2040, from 40% in 2016;
- Around half of the estimated refining capacity additions are expected in the Asia-Pacific, which is projected to add 5 mb/dby 2040;
- Capacity rationalization remains a long-term requirement, with some6-8 mb/d of closures indicated as needed by 2040 if refining regions are to maintain utilization rates of at least80%;
- Global crude movements are expected to increase by around 5 mb/dbetween 2016 and 2040, mostly supported by Asia-Pacific imports and Middle East exports.
- In the period to2040, the required global oil sector investment is estimated at $10.5 trillion.
Written by staff writer